Q3 2023 Market Update
Hans Wydler
Hans Wydler
The chart below shows the US Existing Home Sales trends since 2000. As you can see, we are currently at the lowest level since the post 2008 recession.
Our local market is following the same trend line. High interest rates and inflation have conspired to keep many buyers and sellers on the sidelines. Because inventory is at a 20+ year low (see below), residential values have held up reasonably well, even though housing affordability has plummeted.
Looking ahead, life goes on. The traditional life events that trigger moves, the so-called 5-Ds (Diapers, Diplomas (hi Isabelle), Diamonds, Divorce and Death) happen every day. The longer that sales volume remains artificially depressed, the more pent-up demand will continue to build. When it releases, most likely because of a reversal in interest rates, expect a very fast market, and most likely, rising prices too.
What does this mean? For buyers, don't wait. If you find something you like now, lock it down. If interest rates drop, you can always refinance. If interest rates rise, you'll be glad you bought when you did. For sellers, the question is a little more nuanced. We are basically at record high prices now. If this is the right time for you to make a housing change, you should do very well, particularly in this low inventory environment. If you have a longer timeline, our predictions for 2024 are a little more murky. If rates continue to rise and we slip into a recession, then prices could tick down in the short term.
Looking out to 2025 and beyond, we are more bullish, particularly in DC. Historically, we consistently see a very strong market after a presidential election cycle, and we have no reason to believe that 2025 will be any different. Time will tell, but you heard it here first.
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Wydler Brothers have been selling residential real estate for over 20 years in the DC metro area. Along the way, they’ve achieved numerous awards and recognitions, including being recognized as “The Most Innovative Real Estate Agent in America” (Inman, 2014), written several articles for The Washington Post, authored a book, “Inside the Sell”, co-founded a real estate tech company which sold to Move, Inc. in 2013, and built Wydler Brothers into a highly respected boutique brokerage with 70 agents and employees which they sold to Compass in 2019. Currently, Wydler Brothers is among the top 3 teams in the DMV and was the #1 Compass Team in 2022.