Some Thoughts on Tuesday

"When you come to a fork in the road, take it." ~Yogi Berra

Next Tuesday is election day and one thing is clear, the polls are all over the place and no one knows who is going to be our next president. A question we've been getting is how a Trump/Vance victory vs a Harris/Walz victory might impact the local real estate markets. At Wydler Brothers, we've witnessed five presidential elections and here's our take:

Real estate markets don't like uncertainty and tend to get constipated in the months, weeks, days leading up to a presidential election. Once we know who the next president is going to be, it is the veritable plunger to the "stopped-up" market. As in Yogi Berra's quote, we need to move forward regardless of the direction. Knowing whom the next president will be creates more predictability and people will start making selling/buying decisions with greater fluidity. In other words, getting through the election in and of itself will be good for our local real estate market.

In the meantime, we certainly encourage everyone to vote. Remember that Thanksgiving is just around the corner and it's truly the most American of holidays. I hope you and your loved ones can celebrate together, be grateful for each other, and also grateful for our amazing country.

Market Update

Locally, we saw a flurry of activity early in September in anticipation of the rate hike. However, as expected with the approaching elections, real estate activity has fallen off more recently. Adding to the market slowdown, mortgage rates have actually risen since the September cuts and according to the Wall Street Journal, sales of existing homes in the U.S. are on track for the worst year since 1995.

Looking ahead, we are optimistic. For buyers, if you can find something that works for you, now is a great time to jump into the market. For sellers, if you can wait, we expect early 2025 to be an extremely good time to bring your home to market. Removal of the election uncertainty, combined with continued FED rate cuts, unlocking of pent-up demand and normal seasonal demand will be the key drivers. In short, buckle up! We think 2025 is going to be a big year.

Migration Patterns

As real estate agents, we love data. Census data released earlier this month revealed interesting migration trends. We'd like to point out three particularly interesting data points from the charts below:

1. The 5 states that contribute the most new residents into the DMV (excluding DMV itself and in descending order) are California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

2. The 5 states that receive the most new residents from the DMV are (excluding DMV itself and in descending order) Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Pennsylvania and California.

3. Within the DMV, only Virginia enjoys a net in-migration surplus (approximately +23k in 2023). Both DC and Maryland had net deficits (-7.5k and -36k respectively).